Thiel has been very good at identifying asymmetric bets with enormous upside and little downside especially given how much influence he has amassed in the Republican party with little money (compared to his overall wealth). However his 2016 bet on Trump had a lot more downside than his 2024 gamble as Trump was considered widely unacceptable (publicly) in SV as opposed to now when Trump supporters tend to be a lot more vocal and noticeable in the mainstream.
I think his far more successful foray into politics has been JD Vance. Thiel noticeably pushed him over the borderline against Tim Ryan, who ran a very strong Dem campaign in a red state and suffered the loss of Blake Masters in Arizona with little consequence (and the future likelihood that Masters will get a role in the 2nd Trump admin). Then he leveraged his relationships in Trumpworld to get Vance the position of VP over far more well known candidates. With Trump there's always a level of uncertainty but Vance can pick up a lot of issues that Trump is simply uninterested in and exert influence in ways that can make him very consequential.
I see Elon as someone who looks at the kinds of leaders in over-bureaucratized or over-regulated areas and thinks "I can do better than this person" and does it (SpaceX and Tesla). While he is an enormously intelligent person, I agree that his real powers are his vision and drive.
Great point re: his successful bet on JD Vance. It's worth noting that he also bet big on Blake Masters too, which is a nod to Peter taking multiple bets.
The title made me skeptical, but this was a thought provoking archetypal analysis of motives and sensibilities. I thought about it while reading the OpenAI email dump between Sama and Elon. How would you describe Dario Amodei?
Thiel has been very good at identifying asymmetric bets with enormous upside and little downside especially given how much influence he has amassed in the Republican party with little money (compared to his overall wealth). However his 2016 bet on Trump had a lot more downside than his 2024 gamble as Trump was considered widely unacceptable (publicly) in SV as opposed to now when Trump supporters tend to be a lot more vocal and noticeable in the mainstream.
I think his far more successful foray into politics has been JD Vance. Thiel noticeably pushed him over the borderline against Tim Ryan, who ran a very strong Dem campaign in a red state and suffered the loss of Blake Masters in Arizona with little consequence (and the future likelihood that Masters will get a role in the 2nd Trump admin). Then he leveraged his relationships in Trumpworld to get Vance the position of VP over far more well known candidates. With Trump there's always a level of uncertainty but Vance can pick up a lot of issues that Trump is simply uninterested in and exert influence in ways that can make him very consequential.
I see Elon as someone who looks at the kinds of leaders in over-bureaucratized or over-regulated areas and thinks "I can do better than this person" and does it (SpaceX and Tesla). While he is an enormously intelligent person, I agree that his real powers are his vision and drive.
Idk much about Sam Altman.
Loved the article!
Great point re: his successful bet on JD Vance. It's worth noting that he also bet big on Blake Masters too, which is a nod to Peter taking multiple bets.
I have to imagine that Elon’s bromance with Trump will be short-lived. Trump has a habit of throwing talented people under the bus.
Really interesting analysis.
Who are the other live players that you'd put on the same level as these three?
The title made me skeptical, but this was a thought provoking archetypal analysis of motives and sensibilities. I thought about it while reading the OpenAI email dump between Sama and Elon. How would you describe Dario Amodei?