I have the exact same caveat to Zeihan's predictions that you do. Apart from Zeihan's general overconfidence in his predictions, I think that technology is a blindspot for him. In particular, energy innovation and AGI seem like they could be fundamentally disruptive to his models.
Quite depressing for those outside of the power elite countries. It would seem that countries like Africa are headed for starvation. This sounds like a future of decreasing global population.
From an alternate perspective, what effect will the US isolation policy have on its deeply divided population that seethes with inequality?
This turned out prophetic: "Russia is also in a tough spot, as too many people are old/sick, and they need to annex countries like Ukraine and the Baltic States just to be physically secure. Once the U.S. and NATO retreat, they likely will try. "
china as the manufacturing hub of the world and the USA inability to manufacture anything (masks, toilet paper) does pose a problem, Ziehan doesn't seem to address or at least missed in your excellent summary
I have the exact same caveat to Zeihan's predictions that you do. Apart from Zeihan's general overconfidence in his predictions, I think that technology is a blindspot for him. In particular, energy innovation and AGI seem like they could be fundamentally disruptive to his models.
Quite depressing for those outside of the power elite countries. It would seem that countries like Africa are headed for starvation. This sounds like a future of decreasing global population.
From an alternate perspective, what effect will the US isolation policy have on its deeply divided population that seethes with inequality?
This turned out prophetic: "Russia is also in a tough spot, as too many people are old/sick, and they need to annex countries like Ukraine and the Baltic States just to be physically secure. Once the U.S. and NATO retreat, they likely will try. "
china as the manufacturing hub of the world and the USA inability to manufacture anything (masks, toilet paper) does pose a problem, Ziehan doesn't seem to address or at least missed in your excellent summary
thanks for the summary